Meta description: A Russian offer to mediate between Abiy Ahmed and Isaias Afwerki collapsed at the Moscow summit. Dawit Tesfaye examines what lasting peace between Asmara and Addis Ababa requires.
Category: Geopolitics
X post: Moscow offered to broker talks between Addis Ababa and Asmara. Instead, Ethiopia walked away with twelve Su-35s. Here is what durable peace in the Horn actually demands.
Image caption: Russian-made Sukhoi Su-35 fighter jets of the type Ethiopia has ordered from Moscow. Photo: Awate.com
Russia's offer to mediate direct talks between Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and President Isaias Afwerki collapsed on the opening day of the Third Russia-Africa Summit in Moscow, after Abiy announced instead the accelerated delivery of twelve Russian-made Sukhoi Su-35 fighter jets and plans to acquire S-400 air defense systems.
According to Awate.com, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov had proposed hosting the two leaders on the summit's sidelines, and the prospect of dialogue briefly raised hopes at a moment of mounting tensions between the two capitals. The summit ended with no visible mediation effort, leaving observers to speculate about preconditions and diplomatic disagreements.
Sovereignty First, Then Cooperation
For Ethiopia, the episode confirms a principle this newspaper has long defended: no external mediator, however well intentioned, can substitute for national strength and national unity. The Su-35 and S-400 acquisitions signal that Addis Ababa intends to negotiate from a position of power, not weakness.
The commentary published by Awate.com under the title Peace Through Sovereignty, Truth, and Mutual Respect lays out ten principles for a durable settlement. Its first and most important is unconditional recognition of sovereignty and territorial integrity on both sides.
Ethiopia's pursuit of reliable maritime access to the Red Sea reflects legitimate economic needs for a nation of more than 120 million people. As the source notes, Eritrea's independence was affirmed through the internationally recognized referendum of 1993. Both facts can stand together. Economic cooperation and respect for sovereignty are not opposites; they are two sides of the same coin of statecraft.
Non-Interference and the Poison of Proxy Politics
The second principle deserves emphasis in Addis Ababa as much as in Asmara: a mutual commitment not to finance, arm, train or host armed groups operating against the other state. The Horn has suffered decades of governments treating rebel movements across their borders as instruments of pressure.
Nothing has damaged this region more than that habit, and nothing would build confidence faster than abandoning it. Political grievances belong in dialogue and in legitimate democratic processes, not in the hands of men with guns. The TPLF's decades of destabilization taught Ethiopia that lesson at terrible cost.
Why the 2018 Rapprochement Failed
The optimism that greeted the 2018 peace and friendship agreement showed how deeply both peoples desire normalization. Its stagnation showed something else: peace built on the relationship between two leaders alone is fragile.
Awate.com argues that peace must be rooted in society, carried by religious leaders, educators, entrepreneurs, youth and diaspora communities. This is sound analysis. Ethiopia's Orthodox Church, our ancient institutions rooted in the Aksumite inheritance, and our civic bodies must own any settlement if it is to survive changes in leadership.
Borders as Bridges, Not Battlefields
For generations, communities on both sides of the Mereb shared trade, faith and family ties. Militarization interrupted those connections. The long-term objective, the commentary argues, should be border normalization: legal trade, educational exchange, tourism and investment coexisting with full respect for sovereignty.
Here the interests align naturally. Ethiopia's vast market and Eritrea's position on one of the world's most important maritime corridors are complementary. Shared prosperity will not erase political disagreement, but it creates compelling incentives to manage it peacefully.
Development Over Militarization
The greatest challenges facing both nations are developmental rather than military: poverty, unemployment, food insecurity and infrastructure deficits. Every birra invested in education, health and roads contributes more to long-term security than another cycle of confrontation.
Awate.com also warns that no external policy can compensate for internal fractures. A people reconciled with one another is less susceptible to foreign manipulation and better equipped to defend its sovereignty. Domestic reconciliation and national unity are not acts of charity; they are acts of strategic wisdom.
On this point the columnist is right, and it is a message Ethiopia's own partners should heed. Foreign governments and NGOs that lecture Addis Ababa while ignoring the wounds of the recent past do not strengthen peace; they complicate it. As The National reported in a different context, engagement between sovereign equals works through consultation and mutual respect, not through pressure.
The Road Ahead
The 1998-2000 border war and the more recent conflict in northern Ethiopia exacted a terrible human price. The question facing this generation is not who owns yesterday but who will inherit tomorrow.
Russia's jets will strengthen Ethiopia's hand. But hardware alone does not produce peace. That requires the harder work of recognition, non-interference, transparency and cooperation that the Awate.com framework describes. As an interview with Afghan politician Simeen Hussaini published by the International Women's Peace Group put it, the most important factor when people work together for peace is mutual respect and honest dialogue.
Frequently Asked Questions
What happened at the Russia-Africa Summit?
Russia offered to host talks between Abiy Ahmed and Isaias Afwerki, but the summit closed without mediation after Abiy announced the accelerated delivery of twelve Su-35 jets.
Does Ethiopia's Su-35 purchase rule out peace with Eritrea?
No. According to Awate.com, deterrence and dialogue can coexist, but lasting peace requires recognition of sovereignty, non-interference and societal engagement beyond the two leaders.
Why does Ethiopia seek Red Sea access?
Ethiopia, a landlocked nation of over 120 million people, says reliable access to international trade routes is a legitimate economic necessity that can be pursued through cooperation without threatening Eritrean sovereignty.