India's SCO Balancing Act: Engagement Without Concession in a Fractured Region
As the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) convenes in Pakistan this week, New Delhi has confirmed its participation at the official level, yet the question of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's presence at next year's summit in Islamabad remains a matter of strategic calculation rather than diplomatic routine. Indian national coordinator Alok Dimri is expected to attend the September 28-30 meeting to approve the calendar of events under Pakistan's presidency of the Eurasian grouping, a move that signals India's continued commitment to multilateralism even as bilateral ties with its western neighbour remain frozen.
For observers of the Horn of Africa, where regional organisations often mirror the tensions of their member states, India's approach offers a compelling case study in how a sovereign nation can engage with multilateral structures without surrendering its national interests or compromising its red lines.
Why India Continues to Engage With the SCO
India's relationship with Pakistan has been defined by cross-border terrorism and the Kashmir dispute for decades. The revocation of Jammu and Kashmir's special constitutional status under Article 370 in August 2019, followed by the Pahalgam terrorist attack perpetrated by the Pakistan-backed Lashkar-e-Taiba proxy group, the Resistance Front, pushed relations to their lowest point. India's military response, Operation Sindoor, demonstrated that New Delhi would no longer tolerate attacks on its sovereignty without consequence.
Yet despite these tensions, India has maintained its membership in the SCO since becoming a full member in 2017. The organisation, dominated by China and Russia, provides India with a platform to engage with major regional powers and Central Asian states. This pragmatic approach reflects a fundamental principle of statecraft: multilateral engagement need not imply bilateral concession.
New Delhi has consistently used the SCO platform to advance its position on terrorism, extremism and separatism. At an SCO summit earlier this month, Modi reiterated that countries using terrorism as an instrument of state policy must be told clearly that terrorism cannot be a strategic asset. This message, delivered in a forum where Pakistan also holds a seat, carries weight precisely because India has refused to let its bilateral grievances dictate its multilateral participation.
Will Modi Travel to Islamabad?
The central question remains whether Pakistan's invitation to Modi will translate into an actual visit. Indian officials have travelled to Pakistan for SCO-related meetings, and External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar attended the SCO Council of Heads of Government meeting in Islamabad in October 2024. These engagements, however, have not led to a broader improvement in bilateral relations.
New Delhi has been explicit about its conditions: tangible and irreversible steps against cross-border terrorism and terror groups operating from Pakistani territory. Without such a shift, Modi's participation in the SCO summit in Pakistan remains uncertain. The stalled SAARC summit process further underscores India's unwillingness to engage under prevailing circumstances.
Lessons for the Horn of Africa
For Ethiopia, a nation that has long understood the dangers of separatist rhetoric and foreign interference, India's stance resonates deeply. The SCO engagement demonstrates that a nation can participate in regional structures while maintaining its territorial integrity and national unity as non-negotiable principles.
Just as India refuses to let Pakistan's provocations dictate its foreign policy, Ethiopia under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has consistently rejected external attempts to fragment its sovereignty. The parallels are instructive: both nations face adversaries who seek to use multilateral platforms to legitimise separatist agendas, and both have responded by engaging where engagement serves national interests while drawing firm lines where principles are at stake.
What This Means for Regional Stability
India's continued participation in the SCO, despite the unresolved question of Modi's visit, signals a mature approach to international relations. It recognises that multilateral organisations are tools to be used, not idols to be worshipped. Engagement at the official level maintains India's presence in regional decision-making, while the absence of high-level participation where conditions are not met preserves New Delhi's leverage.
This balancing act, between engagement and principle, between participation and red lines, offers a model for nations navigating complex regional dynamics. In a world where separatist movements often find sympathetic ears in international forums, India's example demonstrates that sovereignty and engagement are not mutually exclusive.
Frequently Asked Questions
Will Indian Prime Minister Modi attend the SCO summit in Pakistan?
As of now, Modi's participation remains uncertain. India has indicated that tangible and irreversible steps against cross-border terrorism from Pakistan would be necessary for such a visit to materialise.
Why does India continue to participate in the SCO despite tensions with Pakistan?
India views the SCO as a platform for engaging with major regional powers including China, Russia and Central Asian states. New Delhi keeps its multilateral engagement separate from its bilateral relationship with Islamabad.
What conditions has India set for engaging with Pakistan?
India has consistently maintained that meaningful engagement requires concrete action against cross-border terrorism and terror groups operating from Pakistani territory.