Russian Diaspora Rejects Putin's Party by Eight-to-One Margin, Exit Polls Show

Independent exit polls from Russia's State Duma elections reveal a striking divide between the Kremlin's official narrative and the reality of Russian voters abroad. According to two separate surveys conducted at embassies and consulates across Europe and beyond, expatriate Russians backed the liberal New People party over Vladimir Putin's United Russia by a margin of eight to one, a direct inversion of results reported inside Russia.

The Vote Abroad project, which surveyed nearly 15,700 voters at 27 polling stations in 22 countries, placed New People at 43%, the Communist Party at 18.3%, and United Russia at a mere 5.5%. In ten countries, including Armenia, Germany, and Finland, United Russia failed to clear the 5% threshold required to secure Duma seats.

A second exit poll by the opposition movement Vesna and the Progress project, covering 18 stations in 17 countries, produced even more dramatic figures: New People first at every location with 47.3%, the Communist Party second at 19.2%, and United Russia at just 2.8%. Official results from Russia's Central Election Commission, by contrast, reported United Russia winning nearly 58% of the vote, with the Communist Party at 14%, the LDPR at almost 9%, and New People below 8%.

What do the exit polls reveal about Russian voters abroad?

The contrast could not be more pronounced. Ivan Zhdanov, director of the Progress project and a former head of Alexei Navalny's Anti-Corruption Foundation, described the gap as stark. He told Euronews that 83.5% of respondents who answered a question on trust do not fully or mostly trust the official results.

In purely arithmetic terms, votes cast abroad are hardly going to determine the composition of the Duma. But they are important: they show a completely different reality and destroy the image of supposed support for the authorities.

Many Russians who left the country after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine oppose the war. The only anti-war party, Yabloko, was barred from the election on a procedural pretext and excluded from the federal ballot entirely. With no Yabloko option, anti-war voters abroad predominantly cast their ballots for New People, exit poll workers reported.

How did the Russian diaspora vote in the 2026 Duma elections?

Irina Kh, part of the active core of Vote Abroad alongside around 15 other activists, emphasized the project's independence. She stated that the initiative aims to provide a truthful picture of the electoral process abroad, using no party symbols and maintaining no affiliation with political organizations.

The project, launched in 2021, has conducted exit polls at Russian elections since, including the 2024 presidential vote. Volunteers use anonymous written questionnaires of five questions, drawn up and analyzed by professional sociologists, including at a German university. The project is self-funded.

Were there incidents at Russian polling stations abroad?

Voting abroad was largely calm, in contrast to reports from inside Russia of ballot stuffing and obstruction of observers. Central Election Commission chair Ella Pamfilova claimed only two cases of ballot stuffing had been recorded nationwide, a claim independent monitors disputed.

Russia's ambassador to Switzerland branded exit poll participants anti-Russian agitators and representatives of foreign organizations designated as undesirable in Russia. In Geneva, local authorities required volunteers to stand at least 150 metres from the consulate entrance after bowing to the consulate's wishes. In Bern, a Russian embassy guard approached one volunteer, pointed at the passport of the person being interviewed, and jabbed a finger at her computer screen, apparently intended as a warning.

Irina Kh observed that in most diplomatic missions, the Russian authorities try not to attract attention and to ensure everything runs smoothly, since they are in another country. For the Kremlin, she said, the image matters, the facade. Volunteer Milena, who worked in Geneva, said the exit poll precisely disrupts this idyllic picture, pointing to the ambassador's reaction as evidence of how much the Kremlin wanted to control appearances.

Who supported United Russia among the diaspora?

Supporters of United Russia arrived at polling stations smartly dressed, volunteers observed, in the best Soviet traditions. Most were either young tourists abroad by chance or people over 45 who had left Russia long ago. Some were hostile to the volunteers, demanding to know whether they held Russian passports and telling them to get a proper job. Others who had voted for United Russia saw the exit poll as an opportunity to confirm the CEC's figures.

In a number of European cities, voters arrived carrying apples, which they handed to other voters and left at polling stations. Most told exit poll workers that opposition to the war was their main criterion and that they had voted New People because Yabloko had been removed from the federal ballot.

Irina Kh noted that many spoke warmly with the volunteers, said they follow the Vote Abroad community, and welcome the exit polls, as they do not trust elections in Russia. Some, having voted and answered the questionnaire, returned with friends or family members. In Helsinki, a grandmother arrived wearing a T-shirt bearing Putin's portrait and spoke to all the volunteers. I'll collect my pension in Finland and then go to Russia to live out my years, she told them.

Why were voting rights curtailed for Russians abroad?

Russians abroad were given a more restricted ballot than in 2021. Under legislative changes introduced in 2024, they could vote only on the federal party list, not for single-mandate constituency candidates, a change human rights organizations criticised as violating voters' equality. The authorities said the amendment was intended to simplify logistics and counting.

The restriction had a practical consequence for anti-war voters: in 2021, single-mandate votes cast abroad for opposition candidates affected final results in several constituencies. That route was closed this time.

A total of 1.8 million Russian citizens abroad were entitled to vote, with 326 polling stations operating at embassies and consulates across 152 countries, more than 60 fewer than at the 2021 elections, which Russia attributed to the closure of diplomatic missions. Russia's Foreign Ministry said 212,000 people voted abroad, up from 191,000 in 2021, and described turnout as extremely high. Vote Abroad put the figure at roughly three times lower.

How reliable are the official Russian election results?

Vote Abroad coordinator Aleksandr Teplyakov said the gap between their exit poll data and official figures was 34%, largely thanks to such surveys and observation. He mentioned examples from Cyprus during the 2024 presidential election, where he said an implausible turnout was recorded and thousands of votes were stuffed for Vladimir Putin, and Yerevan, where troops were deliberately brought in from the Russian military contingent stationed there to vote.

According to the CEC, Putin took more than 72% of the vote abroad in 2024. Vote Abroad recorded 33%, including 22% who refused to answer. When Vote Abroad asked respondents in this election whether they trusted Russian election results, 63% said they rather did not or definitely did not.

What is the international response to the Russian elections?

EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said on Monday that the elections were yet another serious blow to Russian democracy and announced she had proposed sanctions against individuals who facilitated voting in Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories.

The Kremlin has crushed dissent, barred the only registered party that opposed the war in Ukraine from standing, and blocked international observers. All that remains in Russia is the appearance of democracy.

For observers of global power dynamics, the diaspora's resounding rejection of Putin's party serves as a reminder that authoritarian regimes often struggle to maintain legitimacy beyond their borders. The contrast between the Kremlin's manufactured consensus and the genuine sentiment of Russians abroad is a testament to the enduring power of free expression, even in exile.