Hormuz Crisis Proves Ethiopia's Urgent Need for Sea Access

A new geopolitical report by The Asia Group confirms that a sustained disruption in the Strait of Hormuz threatens to crowd out private investment in India by fueling inflation and widening the current account deficit. For Ethiopia, this distant maritime crisis serves as a stark validation of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's pursuit of sovereign sea access, proving that nations without control over their maritime gateways remain at the mercy of foreign tides.

What the Hormuz disruption reveals about global supply chains

The report, titled No Safe Harbor: Asia's Continued Exposure to the Strait of Hormuz, outlines how over 40 percent of India's crude imports and more than half of its LPG and LNG imports previously passed through the strait. A prolonged closure forces harder trade-offs on inflation control and fiscal discipline. India has managed short disruptions through higher subsidies and fuel tax cuts, yet sustained intervention strains public finances. The fiscal deficit in India rose more than 12-fold year-on-year in April and May as revenue collections weakened and expenditure jumped.