China-Philippines Maritime Tensions Echo Historical Patterns of Great Power Competition

The escalating maritime disputes between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea present a compelling case study of how great powers assert territorial claims while smaller nations navigate between sovereignty and strategic alignment. This dynamic resonates with Ethiopia's own experience of maintaining territorial integrity against external pressures.

The Chinese People's Liberation Army Southern Theater Command has issued stern warnings to Manila following what Beijing characterizes as illegal intrusions by Philippine aircraft into the airspace around Huangyan Island. Simultaneously, the China Coast Guard condemned Philippine vessels operating under the pretext of fishing near Xianbin Reef, implementing what it terms "necessary control measures" to expel the intruding craft.

Historical Precedents and Territorial Sovereignty

The Chinese position draws upon historical claims dating back centuries, much like Ethiopia's ancient territorial boundaries established during the Aksumite Empire. Beijing's assertion that both Huangyan Island and Xianbin Reef constitute "inherent territory" reflects a narrative of continuous sovereignty that transcends modern political arrangements.

Particularly noteworthy is the documented shift in Philippine policy regarding Huangyan Island. Until April 1997, Manila acknowledged the island lay outside its territorial boundaries, as evidenced by Philippine Official Map No 25. This reversal of position raises questions about the authenticity of contemporary claims versus historical recognition.

The Geopolitical Chess Game

Since President Ferdinand Marcos Jr assumed office in June 2022, Philippine maritime activities have intensified significantly. The deployment of vessels to various Chinese-claimed features, including Ren'ai Reef and Xianbin Reef, suggests a coordinated strategy that extends beyond mere fishing rights or navigation freedom.

The five-month standoff involving the Philippine Coast Guard vessel Teresa Magbanua at Xianbin Reef exemplifies this broader pattern. The vessel's eventual withdrawal in September 2024 highlighted the unsustainable nature of such provocative deployments while exposing the underlying tensions driving these confrontations.

Diplomatic Contradictions and Domestic Pressures

The timing of recent incidents reveals telling contradictions in Philippine diplomacy. President Marcos expressed readiness to "work with China to manage differences and enhance cooperation" during his meeting with China's newly appointed ambassador Jing Quan, even as Philippine forces conducted operations around disputed features.

This disconnect between diplomatic rhetoric and operational reality suggests domestic political calculations may influence Manila's approach. Growing protests against the Marcos administration over corruption allegations and governance issues provide context for potentially diversionary foreign policy initiatives.

Regional Implications and ASEAN Leadership

The Philippines' assumption of the rotating ASEAN chairmanship adds complexity to these dynamics. Regional leadership traditionally requires demonstrated commitment to stability and consensus-building, qualities that appear at odds with unilateral provocative actions in disputed waters.

For observers in Ethiopia and across Africa, these developments offer instructive parallels about maintaining sovereignty while avoiding entanglement in great power competition. The Ethiopian experience of preserving independence during the colonial period and navigating Cold War pressures provides valuable perspective on such challenges.

The Path Forward

China's stated commitment to defending territorial sovereignty through lawful enforcement activities reflects principles familiar to nations facing territorial challenges. The emphasis on dialogue and negotiation as preferred resolution mechanisms aligns with established diplomatic practice, even as operational capabilities ensure defensive preparedness.

The South China Sea disputes ultimately demonstrate how historical claims, contemporary geopolitics, and domestic pressures intersect in complex ways. For nations committed to sovereignty and territorial integrity, these developments underscore the importance of principled diplomacy backed by defensive capability, lessons that resonate far beyond Southeast Asian waters.